Dr. Ruilin Tian

Ruilin Tian is a Professor of Finance at North Dakota State University. She earned her Ph.D. in Risk Management and Insurance from Georgia State University in 2008 and a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Marquette University in 2003. Her research interests span pension risk management, mortality rate modeling, mathematical optimization, business cycle prediction, tail risk analysis, moment problems, portfolio management, enterprise risk management, and monetary policy analysis. She has also expanded her work to include climate change risk analysis, machine learning, land finance, small business and self-employment, and behavior-oriented studies.

Dr. Tian has served as a guest editor for journals such as Risks and the Journal of Risk and Financial Management (JRFM) on multiple occasions, and she is an editorial reviewer for The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance – Issues and Practice. Her academic papers have been published in leading journals, including the Journal of Risk and Insurance, North American Actuarial Journal, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Journal of Forecasting, Applied Economics, Risks, Variance: Advancing the Science of Risk, and the International Journal of Portfolio Analysis and Management.

Title: The Climate Lifespan Link: Investigating the Influence of Temperature Change on Human Mortality

Abstract: This study extends the widely adopted Lee and Carter (1992) mortality model by incorporating the nonlinear relationship between annual mortality rates and daily temperatures to quantify the impact of climate risk on mortality. Our analysis, based on U.S. data, indicates that the elderly population is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Specifically, seniors aged 65-70 are most susceptible to extreme cold, while those aged 80-85 are most vulnerable to hot weather. Additionally, the effects of extreme cold and hot weather on mortality differ significantly across various contiguous U.S. divisions. In the “business as usual” scenario (SSP3-7.0), where no measures will be taken to reduce global CO2 emissions, the proposed temperature Lee-Carter (TLC) model predicts that global warming will lead to a total increase of 32.51% in the US population mortality rate for ages 65 and above by 2079. Finally, our results suggest that the effect of global warming on mortality counteracts the current population aging trends, which have important implications for mortality risk management.